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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.