Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
