Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The mean number of daily homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new administrative figures. However, security analysts have warned that murder figures may not signal better national stability.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President began the presidency in September of last year. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” the President stated, explaining that last month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security researchers cautioned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it might obscure days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.