A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
